Profit streak extends past three weeks
Bitcoin has spent three weeks above a key onchain profitability line, a stretch not seen so far in 2026. CryptoQuant data shows the spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, has stayed above 1 since Aug. 19. The metric sits near 1.002. When SOPR is above 1, coins moved onchain are generally being sold at a profit. That can point to bullish momentum, though it is not a guarantee.
The current run is the longest bullish SOPR stretch of the year. SOPR usually hugs the 1 level, so a sustained move above it stands out. Traders watch the metric because it reflects whether holders are spending coins at gains or losses. A long streak suggests sellers are not overwhelming the market.
Short-term holder data draws comparisons to early bull markets
Checkonchain, an onchain analytics suite, looked at SOPR for short-term holders. That group includes wallets that held coins for up to six months. The firm said the structure now looks more like early bull-market recoveries. In a bear market, rallies back into profit often get sold. In a bull market, brief drops below break-even can become buying opportunities. Checkonchain sees the current setup leaning toward the second pattern, though the signal is still developing.
Bitcoin price has held a local range near $80,000 while the SOPR streak continues. That combination has given some analysts reason to question the bear-market case.
Puell still sees downside risk
Not everyone is convinced. David Puell, an ARK Invest portfolio manager and creator of the Puell Multiple, told CryptoQuant on Sept. 4 that more evidence is needed before calling a bear-market floor. He said further upside is the less likely outcome for now and described the risk as tilted to the downside.
Puell wants SOPR to stay above 1 for a longer period. He also wants investors to realize profits consistently without price returning to a new low. Beyond that, Bitcoin needs a series of higher highs and higher lows. That pattern is still missing on weekly time frames, according to recent analysis.
Mixed signals keep the debate alive
The SOPR recovery is a notable change from typical bear-market behavior. It may be an early sign of a longer recovery, or it may fade if selling pressure returns. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said in late August that the bear market was already over, based on the firm’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Puell’s caution shows that not all analysts share that view.
For now, Bitcoin sits in a strange spot. Onchain profitability is improving, but price has not confirmed a clear trend change. The next few weeks could decide whether this SOPR streak is a true shift or just another bounce.
