Prediction market users are increasingly betting that Bitcoin will dip below $70,000 before May ends, as the leading cryptocurrency continues its weekly slide.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action
Down 3% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin was recently trading at $72,739, sitting just 3.9% above the $70,000 mark. Overnight, the price hit a six-week low of $72,669, according to data from CoinGecko. This decline has prompted a significant shift on prediction platforms.
On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the odds for Bitcoin ending May below $70,000 have jumped more than 240% in the last day. Still, those odds sit at only 27%. Similarly, traders on Polymarket give a 26% chance for the same outcome.
Liquidations and ETF Outflows Fuel the Slide
Bitcoin’s drop has been fueled by heavy crypto liquidations. In the past 24 hours, nearly $924 million in positions were liquidated, with $851 million of that coming from long positions, or bets that prices would rise. “Partly this is due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out,” an analyst from Arctic Digital told Decrypt.
Bitcoin ETFs have lost over $1 billion in just the last two trading days. On Wednesday alone, $733 million left these exchange-traded products, according to Farside Investors. The current eight-day losing streak has seen more than $2.6 billion exit Bitcoin ETFs.
Mixed Signals for Deeper Declines
While near-term bearishness is rising, predictors aren’t expecting a crash just yet. On Myriad, the odds of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 before the end of May stand at just 3%. Remove the immediate time constraints, and the picture turns more pessimistic. On Polymarket, odds suggest a 54% chance Bitcoin will dip below $55,000 and a 42% chance it will trade below $50,000 in 2026.
Earlier this year, crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant called $55,000 the “ultimate bear market bottom.” Meanwhile, analysts at Standard Chartered said Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 before bouncing back to $100,000. Currently, Bitcoin sits more than 42% below its all-time high of $126,080.
