Early ETF Numbers Look Strong
Bitcoin ETFs are off to a fast start this week, and that is drawing attention. The first two trading days brought in $651.93 million, according to SoSoValue. That is more than a third of last week’s $1.92B total. The daily candle barely moved on August 25, down a slight 0.09%, but the inflow pace may matter more.
On August 24, ETFs added $337.56 million, followed by $314.37 million on August 25. BlackRock’s IBIT led again with $284.42 million on that second day. The weekly total could go higher if the pace holds. Last week’s $1.92B was the strongest since October 2025, when Bitcoin set its all-time high above $126,000. Cumulative net inflows now sit at $54.36B, and total net assets are close to $99.05B, so the $100B mark is within reach.
IBIT’s Share of the Flow
One detail is easy to miss in the aggregate. On August 25, IBIT accounted for $284.42M of the day’s $314.37M total, or around 90%. That means this week’s inflow story is mostly about one fund. Broad demand across multiple issuers is a different signal and, honestly, a more stable one. If IBIT slows down for a day, the weekly total could drop sharply even if Bitcoin’s price does nothing. Watching the breakdown by ticker, not just the overall figure, is probably the smarter way to judge this week.
Analyst Still Cautious on a Late-Year Drop
Ben Cowen told Cointelegraph he started buying Bitcoin back in July when it slipped below $60,000. That was his plan for the year before a U.S. presidential election, following a similar pattern from 2018 and 2022. But buying does not mean confidence. Cowen still sees a good chance of one more sell-off before the end of 2026. He compares the current rally shape to 2018, when each bounce got lower before the cycle bottomed. He is also watching the S&P 500. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, a second stock market correction later in the year lined up with Bitcoin’s cycle low. A 10-20% S&P pullback seems more likely to him than a larger crash.
Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch
From a technical view, Bitcoin has been inside a rising channel since August 20. It touched $81,233 on August 25, then pulled back through a small descending pattern. Price is now testing the 20-day EMA at $78,958.55 and the 50-day EMA at $78,753.69. The Parabolic SAR sits at $77,992.63, still below price, so the short-term trend remains bullish. Support near $75,000 tracks the lower channel boundary. Resistance sits at $81,233, with the upper boundary near $84,000. The Fear and Greed Index is at 65, in Greed territory, down from 74 the day before but well above last month’s 30 reading.
The setup is not one-sided. ETF flows are strong, price structure is intact, and sentiment has recovered. But the reliance on IBIT and Cowen’s caution around late-year risk make this a week to watch carefully. If Bitcoin can hold above $77,992 and keep demand broad, the current rally has room to continue. If not, the coming sessions might tell a different story.
