Market backdrop
U.S. stocks opened the week higher as oil prices fell. The S&P 500 was up 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2% by late morning in New York. Brent crude dropped 4.3% to about $94 a barrel, which gave the broader market some room to breathe. Nvidia still slid, and that kept tech investors a little nervous.
The next test comes Tuesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October consumer price index. The report matters because a stronger-than-expected jobs report has already pushed traders to price in roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December. I think that is the main macro overhang for risk assets right now, crypto included.
Bitcoin’s forced-selling bounce
Bitcoin was up 0.7% at $74,559 after touching its lowest level in more than two months. The move followed a wave of forced selling in crypto derivatives. CoinGlass showed $1.2 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. Exchanges close positions when traders can no longer cover losses with posted collateral. About $1.04 billion of the total came from longs, or bets on higher prices. Bitcoin positions accounted for $324 million, and nearly 87% of that was long.
That kind of washout can create a short-term bounce, but it does not always fix the bigger trend. The rebound was modest, and price is still well below where it was earlier in the week.
What the weekly chart says
Bitcoin rallied from roughly $57,700 to $87,350 before sliding back toward $75,000. It traded at $74,685 after an early dip to $73,667, with the weekly candle still open.
The 50-week exponential moving average sits near $78,250, above the 200-week EMA at about $69,790. That order still favors the longer-term uptrend, though Bitcoin is below the faster average. The gap between the two has narrowed, which raises the possibility of a death cross later. The RSI is at 47.8, close to neutral with a slight tilt toward sellers. The ADX reads 21.9, below the 25 level often used to mark a strong trend, even though directional indicators give buyers a small edge.
Levels to watch
On the downside, $74,400 is the first area where buyers could step in. Bitcoin has already traded through it this week, so a weekly close below that level would put $72,550 in view, followed by the $69,000 area around the 200-week EMA.
On a rebound, sellers could stall the move near $76,040. The 50-week EMA around $78,250 is next. A move through that average would put $80,360 back in play, with the prior rebound high near $87,350 beyond it.
