Bitcoin traded near $78,200 on Monday, up from a recent low around $76,100, as buyers tried to steady the market after a rough October. The move is a recovery, not a clean break. Prices are still below a key short-term average, and momentum gauges remain weak.
What drove the selloff
The main trigger was the Binance hack. The exchange, the largest by trading volume, lost nearly $6.4 billion, though some assets were frozen with help from Tether and Circle. The incident hit sentiment across crypto. Ethereum and XRP also showed modest rebounds, but the market tone stayed cautious.
Traditional investors reacted too. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in net outflows on Friday, the first trading session after the hack. That number matters because it shows how quickly institutional flows can turn when confidence drops.
Options traders cut their targets
Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, said market expectations for Bitcoin’s year-end price have shifted. According to options data, the chance of Bitcoin topping $100,000 by Christmas fell from 6% last Wednesday to 3.5%, or about one in 30. The probability of clearing $90,000 by December 25 is now 14%, while the chance of holding above $80,000 is 44%. I think the takeaway is simple: traders still see a path higher, but they are pricing in more risk.
Technical picture stays fragile
Bitcoin is stuck between support and resistance. It trades above the 100-day EMA at $77,831 and the 200-day EMA at $76,471, which suggests the broader setup has not fully broken. But it remains below the 50-day EMA at $80,307. That level is the first real test for buyers.
A daily close above $80,307 would improve the short-term picture and could open a move toward $85,000. That area acted as resistance before, so sellers may return. On the downside, a break below $77,831 would put the 200-day EMA back in play. A close under $76,471 would weaken the structure and raise the odds of a deeper corrective phase.
Momentum indicators are not helping the bull case yet. The daily RSI sits near 40, below neutral, and the MACD remains negative. For now, range-bound trading looks likely until Bitcoin breaks out. Perhaps the market needs more than a one-day bounce to feel confident again.
