A Binance Research report on the first half of 2026 paints a rough picture for Bitcoin. The asset fell about 32% year-to-date by the end of June, marking its third straight quarterly loss. It sits more than 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025. The report describes the sell-off as part of a broader repricing across global markets, a process it calls re-anchoring.
Rates and the Fed challenge crypto
Market expectations around Federal Reserve policy were a major driver. In August 2024, traders priced in deep rate cuts, with the implied spread between expected and actual Fed funds rates around -230 basis points. By mid-2026, that spread had shifted to roughly +33 basis points. Markets now assign about an 80% chance of a rate hike by December. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fueled the shift by focusing on inflation in his first press conference, pushing short-term Treasury yields higher. Bitcoin’s price has moved inversely with that repricing over the past year.
Binance Research feels the current Fed pricing is too hawkish. Meanwhile, the broader economy shows an unusual reliance on AI hardware investment, which contributed about 40% of first-quarter GDP growth. The S&P 500 rose 18.5% over twelve months, but that advance was driven by earnings, not higher price-to-earnings multiples, which compressed from 22x to around 20x.
Japan adds another layer of pressure. The Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has shrunk by 16.4% from its 2024 peak, the largest contraction in its history. The yen still touched a 40-year low near 162 per dollar in June, even after a rate hike to 1% and record central-bank intervention.
Capitulation signals appear onchain
Onchain data points to deep capitulation. Around 10.83 million BTC were held at an unrealized loss by the end of June, while 9.22 million BTC remained in profit. This marks the first time losses have outnumbered gains in the current cycle. Binance Research sees a plausible but unconfirmed historical bottoming window into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bitcoin held its dominance, accounting for 57% to 60% of the crypto market throughout the first half. But when dominance dipped, funds moved into stablecoins or left the market entirely. There was no sustained rotation into altcoins.
ETF outflows and selling pressure
Demand channels that fueled earlier rallies reversed. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first-ever year-to-date net outflow, with a record $4.5 billion pulled out in June alone. More than three-quarters of that came from BlackRock’s IBIT.
Corporate buying also thinned. Strategy’s enterprise valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time, making further share issuance dilutive. The company sold 32 BTC in May and 1,363 BTC in late June, moves aimed at supporting its reserve and distribution obligations rather than signaling a change in conviction. Public miners added to the selling, offloading at a record pace as hash price hit an all-time low. The stress has widened the gap between pure-play miners and those pivoting to AI and high-performance computing.
The report also notes that quantum-computing risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography moved from theory toward concrete migration planning, with draft protocol proposals now circulating. It remains a longer-term item for institutional holders, but it is no longer purely academic.
