The global geopolitical landscape has been thrown into a frenzy following U.S. President Joe Biden’s approval of Ukraine’s use of American-made missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory. This decision, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stern warning that it could be viewed as an act of war, has sparked intense discussion about the potential for a global conflict. Russia has voiced concerns that these maneuvers might pull NATO and the U.S. into direct engagement, escalating tensions even further.
A Russian lawmaker has termed Biden’s decision as a “very big step toward World War III,” stating that it’s like adding “fuel to the fire” of the ongoing conflict. In an interesting turn of events, bettors on the blockchain-powered prediction marketplace Polymarket are speculating on whether a nuclear weapon will be detonated by the end of 2024. The rules of the wager dictate that the market will resolve to “Yes” if a nuclear weapon is used anywhere in the world before Dec. 31, 2024, at 11:59 p.m. ET. If not, the market will settle on “No.”
As of 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, the wager on Polymarket has accrued approximately $1.64 million in trading volume. At the same time on Tuesday, bettors are setting the odds of a nuclear detonation this year at a mere 11%. A commenter on the platform quipped, “literally free money guys.” Adding to the conversation, financial blog and news aggregator Zero Hedge posted, “Good luck collecting ‘YES.’”
CNN reports that the decision to allow the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russia followed months of deliberation. However, the speculation on Polymarket extends beyond potential nuclear detonation. Users are also wagering on whether Ukraine and Russia will agree to a ceasefire in 2024. The sentiment reflected in these bets is overwhelmingly negative: only 7% believe a ceasefire is imminent, while a staggering 94% think the conflict will continue.
This volatile situation underscores the global community’s apprehension about the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia. It also highlights the unique role of platforms like Polymarket, where the public can express their predictions and concerns about significant geopolitical events. As we approach the end of 2024, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for de-escalation and peace while preparing for the potential escalation of conflict.
