After bitcoin’s roughly 28% slump this year, there are growing signs that the wave of panic selling which has weighed on the market for months may finally be coming to an end.
Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The first sign is that bitcoin’s price held steady over the weekend, even as U.S.-Iran hostilities escalated and crude prices spiked on Hyperliquid. That solidity contrasts with March and April, when similar escalations between the two nations and oil rallies sent the largest cryptocurrency sliding. As Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, put it, “BTC held $62k through rounds of US airstrikes and a Hormuz closure, barely flinching. The weak hands look gone.”
ETF Inflows Turn Positive After Eight Weeks of Outflows
The second sign comes from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Last week, they pulled in a net $197.40 million of investor money, marking the first net inflows after eight straight weeks of outflows. De Maere noted, “The eight-week ETF outflow streak broke. One turn, not a trend, but the marginal seller is drying up.” He was referring to investors willing to sell even as the price drops, eroding their profits. Once the marginal seller leaves the market, there’s nothing left for buyers at that price.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo, made a similar point. “ETF flows confirm it from another angle. The past ten days split between inflow and outflow, netting slightly positive,” she said. She also highlighted that Glassnode data shows spot selling pressure has faded. “June’s net selling averaged nearly 2,000 BTC a day; July’s has slowed to just 53 BTC a day, the calmest month of 2026 outside April.”
Recovery Still Fragile, Derivatives Driving the Bounce
The relative calm, however, may not indicate a rapid turnaround. The price recovery from the year’s low of $57,700, hit earlier this month, is largely driven by derivatives traders and not spot buyers, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst. “Demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market. At the same time, the situation in the spot market remains less positive,” he said.
Without a strong return of buy-side liquidity, prices could remain in a sideways trend for months to come, he cautioned. And caution is understandable ahead of macroeconomic data that may influence interest-rate decisions and the appetite for risk. U.S. CPI for June is scheduled for release Tuesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Congressional testimony is due this week. These events could influence the market trajectory and make, or break, the recovery.
