Bitcoin is trading at $64,099.20 as of press time. This marks some recovery from the recent dip below $60k. But many investors are still worried.
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, pointed to a few key headwinds for Bitcoin. One big issue is the shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel. That has not done much to calm fears about a new war in the Middle East. He said that in markets like this, the turn often begins when forced selling is exhausted rather than when the headline backdrop improves.
Fed Policy and Inflation Worries
The minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting added to concerns. Interest rates stayed unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed is most worried about inflation, thanks to tariffs, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and strong demand for AI. Core PCE inflation hit 3.3% in April and an estimated 3.4% in May. With the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.2% in June after dropping from 4.3% in May, there is little reason for policymakers to loosen monetary policy.
Signs of a Bitcoin Bottom
Despite all these obstacles, Butterfill sees early hints that Bitcoin might be approaching a bottom. The Spot Bitcoin ETFs just had their longest withdrawal streak on record, with net outflows of about $8 billion over the last eight weeks. But recent inflows over the past three trading sessions suggest institutional selling pressure might be easing.
There is also less worry about Strategy selling its Bitcoin. A sale of 3,588 BTC in early July had little effect on the market. Bitcoin actually recovered and moved toward $63,800. On the regulatory front, hope for the CLARITY Act is fading since it still awaits a Senate floor vote. If that act passes, it could push Bitcoin to new heights. Butterfill summed it up best: “The market remains under pressure, but not broken.”
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Looking at the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, the $77k cost-basis cluster has turned into a major resistance zone. It previously supported prices in April and May. An even larger supply cluster is around $84k to $85k, which could act as serious overhead resistance since many holders may sell at break-even. On the bright side, fresh accumulation in the $60k to $63k range suggests buyers are building a new support base. While sustained buying above $77k would improve the bullish outlook, Bitcoin remains below key historical cost-basis levels, pointing to cautious sentiment overall.
