There is growing consensus among analysts that Bitcoin’s four-year performance pattern, tied to halving events, is still intact. Benjamin Cowen recently reinforced this idea, saying the cycle is not broken. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s average drawdown during midterm years is almost identical to current levels. The asset’s current behavior also mirrors past U.S. midterm elections, according to Cowen.
Many had hoped the debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 would break this cycle. But key metrics now suggest otherwise. On-chain data from Checkonchain shows Bitcoin price action has been flirting with the 200-week moving average (200WMA) evaluation model. Past market cycle bottoms often happened near this level.
The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin trades relative to its 200-week moving average. Current readings sit in the bottom 10% of all historical observations, a region seen only during the deepest stages of prior bear markets. This suggests further downside risk.
Demand Drops Sharply
CryptoQuant also warns that Bitcoin could drop to its realized price level of $53,500, an area that marked a structural floor in past bear markets, including the 2022 bottom. The analytics platform says current demand for Bitcoin is deeply unfavorable for a sustained rebound. Total Bitcoin demand, including speculative futures and apparent spot, plunged to -652,000 BTC last week. That is the largest contraction since January 2022.
In short, weak demand means there is a high chance Bitcoin price could slip below $60,000. As of writing, Bitcoin trades around $63,000 and may extend its recovery after retesting its February low last week.
When Could the Bottom Form?
If past market cycle patterns repeat, Bitcoin might form a true bottom in Q3 or Q4 2026. That would also mark the early phase of the next bull run. For now, investors should brace for potential volatility as the bears may not be done yet.
