In This Post:
- Cardano’s price could drop by 10% if the upcoming Chang hard fork doesn’t go well.
- Traders have placed strong sell positions between $0.372 and $0.4.
- The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has hit a 7-month high, which could mean Cardano is overvalued.
Cardano’s price is in a tough spot. The upcoming Chang hard fork is creating uncertainty. Some on-chain data suggests that investors are hopeful, but trader behavior seems more cautious and bearish.
On-Chain Metrics:
Data from Santiment shows the NVT ratio has reached a 7-month high. Typically, when this ratio rises and the price drops, it signals a potential overvaluation.
Despite this, data from IntoTheBlock shows that large investors, known as “whales,” have been buying ADA between August 25 and 28, even as the price fell. This suggests that big investors still believe in Cardano’s long-term potential.
The buying from whales might be providing some support for the price. When big investors accumulate, it can help stabilize or even push the price higher. This is a positive sign for Cardano in the long run.
Technical Analysis:
Despite the optimism from whales, Cardano’s price has fallen below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This shows that bearish pressure is strong. The price found some support around $0.3550, where many whales seem to be building their positions. However, the market shows indecision, with small price movements up and down.
The Coinglass 7-day Liquidation Map reveals a strong sell wall between $0.372 and $0.4. This means it will be tough for the price to move above this range without significant buying pressure.
On the downside, there isn’t much buying support between $0.348 and $0.312. If the price falls below this range, it could drop sharply, possibly below $0.3.
Looking Forward
For Cardano to avoid further drops, it needs to break above the $0.4 mark. Positive sentiment from large investors might help, but short-term traders, who aren’t committed to holding the asset long-term, could still push the price down.
The success of the Chang hard fork will be critical. If it goes well, it could boost the price. But if there are problems, a 10% drop is likely.
In summary, Cardano is at a crossroads. The market is uncertain, with both positive and negative factors in play. Investors should watch the Chang hard fork closely to see where the price might head next.
