Onchain analytics firm Cryptoquant has stirred debate by suggesting that Bitcoin’s current cycle may not have reached its peak, despite the cryptocurrency being down roughly 50% from its record high near $126,000 in October 2025.
The firm’s analysis centers on its 365-day PnL Index Signal, which continues to trend lower. According to Cryptoquant, this pattern historically indicates a market still in an accumulation phase rather than one that has topped out. In their framework, a depressed and falling reading typically marks where bear markets bottom, not where bull markets end.
What the Signal Actually Shows
The PnL Index blends several widely watched onchain metrics: the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit and loss, and the ratio of long-term to short-term holders. By tracking this index against its 365-day moving average, the firm defines bullish or bearish cycle signals.
Notably, the bull-bear cycle indicator flipped green on May 12. That was its first bullish signal since March 2023. But analysts at the firm themselves cautioned that the same indicator produced a false positive in 2022, and that a green light alone does not guarantee a durable uptrend. So there’s some honest uncertainty baked into their own read.
A Market Torn Between Two Views
The bullish interpretation faces a serious counterargument. Bitcoin printed its all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025. Since then, prices have been cut in half, a drawdown that convinced some analysts the cycle top is already behind us. They argue the market is working through a conventional post-peak bear phase.
But Cryptoquant’s signal implies the opposite. October’s high, in their view, was not this cycle’s final word. The structure resembles a market still building toward its peak. In other words, if the top is already behind, rallies from here look like exit liquidity. If it’s ahead, the current zone is accumulation territory.
Some traders have already bet on the latter view. One whale reportedly bought $98.9 million worth of Bitcoin at the June 5 low of $59,734. Within two days, as the market bounced, that position netted a $3.5 million profit. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was holding above $60,000, trading near $62,550.
Caveats to Consider
Still, onchain cycle signals are probabilistic, not prophetic. The 2022 false green flip is a clear reminder of that. Weak or falling PnL readings alone do not guarantee a reversal. What they describe is holder profitability, not future demand. That’s a subtle but important distinction.
Macro forces have also repeatedly overridden onchain structure this year. Tariff headlines, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and broader economic uncertainty have all played a role in Bitcoin’s recent price action. So while Cryptoquant’s framework offers an interesting contrarian take, it’s worth remembering that no single indicator tells the whole story.
