Bitcoin’s valuation, according to the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, looks unusually low heading into August 1, 2026. The model, which tracks price against a long-term logarithmic trend, suggests the cryptocurrency may still be stuck in its deepest undervaluation zone by that date.
The BlockchainCenter’s Dynamic Rainbow Chart outlines a wide potential range. On the low end, it sees Bitcoin around $63,400, and on the high end, roughly $517,500. The so-called fair-value ‘HODL’ zone sits at about $181,200. That is nearly three times Bitcoin’s current price of $62,655.
Right now, Bitcoin sits marginally below the chart’s lowest band, called ‘Basically a Fire Sale.’ That threshold is around $63,440. Historically, such readings have only appeared during severe bear markets, like after the FTX collapse in late 2022.
Bitcoin’s 2026 Bearish Case
Bitcoin’s position on the chart follows a sharp drop from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. The decline accelerated in 2026 as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates elevated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded a record $4.5 billion in outflows during June, which helped push BTC to a 21-month low of $58,115.
Attention now turns to the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. Markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of another rate hold. If the Fed stays hawkish, Bitcoin could fall back toward $58,115. A more dovish surprise might support a move toward $65,600 or even $70,000.
Based on these scenarios, Bitcoin could trade between $58,000 and $66,000 on August 1. Even at the upper end of that range, the price would remain within or only slightly above the Rainbow Chart’s deepest undervaluation bands. To exit the ‘Fire Sale’ zone, Bitcoin would need to surpass $63,440. To move beyond the ‘BUY!’ band, it would need to hit $82,500.
Understanding the Rainbow Chart’s Limits
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart maps price against a long-term logarithmic trend. Its latest Dynamic version updates daily using a Power Law regression based on Bitcoin’s full price history since 2012. The model claims a fit strength of 94.3%, which is impressive but not perfect.
BlockchainCenter emphasizes that the Rainbow Chart is not a predictive tool or investment advice. Because the model recalculates daily, its valuation bands change over time. They offer a snapshot of Bitcoin’s historical trend rather than a reliable forecast of future prices. So, while the chart paints a dire picture for August 2026, it should be taken with a grain of salt. Markets are unpredictable, and models like this are just one piece of the puzzle.
