Ethereum is currently caught between two very different technical setups, and that has traders feeling a bit confused. One chart suggests a long-term rally toward $10,000 or even $22,000. But the shorter-term picture looks a lot less rosy. $ETH has lost the $1,825 support level, and that opens up the path toward $1,603 and maybe even $1,409.
Long-Term Pattern Suggests Rally
Analyst Gert van Lagen sees Ethereum forming a complex expanding diagonal pattern on the bi-weekly chart. This is based on an Elliott Wave interpretation. According to his view, $ETH is now developing Wave 5 within a multi-year structure that started after the 2022 bear market low.
The chart outlines five corrective waves inside an expanding triangle. Wave 1 peaked near the 2021 cycle high, and Wave 4 seems to have finished around the recent lows near $1,700 to $1,800. Van Lagen thinks $ETH has started Wave 5, the final phase of this pattern. A key part of this setup is the projected “c” wave of Wave 5. This final leg could turn into a blow-off style rally. The projection points to an orange target zone between roughly $10,000 and $22,000, which matches the upper boundary of the expanding structure. The chart also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows since 2022. Despite several deep corrections, $ETH has kept respecting the broader rising trendline that forms the lower boundary of the diagonal pattern.
But there is a catch. The bullish outlook depends on keeping support above the Wave 4 low. Van Lagen says a break below that area would weaken the expanding diagonal count and challenge the projected path toward the upper target zone.
Short-Term Chart Looks Bearish
On the other hand, analyst Ali Charts points out that $ETH has broken below the critical $1,825 support level. This breakdown came after $ETH lost support at $2,073 and kept declining on the three-day timeframe. That signals growing bearish pressure. The chart shows $ETH trading near $1,746 after closing below the $1,825 support area. This level used to be a major floor during the recent consolidation phase. Its loss suggests sellers have taken control of the short-term trend.
The next major support sits near $1,603. If selling pressure continues, $ETH could test that zone in the coming sessions. Below that, the chart identifies $1,409 as another significant support area and the next downside target in the bearish scenario. From a technical perspective, $ETH has now formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since peaking near $2,359. The recent breakdown below both $2,073 and $1,825 confirms weakening momentum and raises the likelihood of more downside movement.
However, for bears to keep control, $ETH must stay below the broken $1,825 support. A recovery back above that level could weaken the immediate bearish outlook and reduce pressure on the lower support zones.
So where does that leave us? The long-term picture is still optimistic for some, but the short-term action suggests caution is warranted. It is a classic case of conflicting timeframes, and traders will likely watch the $1,825 level closely. If it turns into resistance, the downside risks become more real.
