Bitcoin (BTC) may be heading for a correction in the near term. The reason? Spot demand is fading, while whale derivatives traders are turning more bearish.
Bitcoin recently rallied from around $66,000 to nearly $79,500, marking its highest level since late January. That surge was mostly driven by renewed demand in the perpetual futures market, according to data from CryptoQuant. Over the past 30 days, however, Bitcoin was actually being sold in the spot market. That selling was partly offset by renewed demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), especially BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). But the spot market, overall, saw net selling.
History might repeat itself
We saw a similar pattern back in early January 2026. Back then, Bitcoin rallied toward $98,000, fueled by derivatives demand even as the spot market saw net selling. Eventually, the price corrected. If derivative traders start taking profits now, and spot selling pressure continues, history might repeat itself.
There is another warning sign emerging from the data. According to metrics from Alphractal, more retail traders are adding long leverage positions recently. At the same time, whales—large, influential investors—are positioning for a potential correction. In the last five times this kind of divergence appeared, whales won against retail traders four times.
Macro picture still looks bearish
The recent price pump hasn’t changed the bigger picture, according to Aksel Kibar, a former fund manager. He points out that Bitcoin is still trading inside a bearish flag pattern, specifically a consolidation rising channel that has been forming since early February.
Bitcoin did push above the average cost basis of recent buyers, as Finbold recently reported. But it has been rejected twice already at the upper boundary of that rising channel. If that pattern holds, BTC could drop below $70,000 again and retest the lower end of the macro bearish flag.
What could reverse the trend?
It is not all doom and gloom. Bitcoin could keep rallying or even spark a fresh bull run if spot demand picks up again and derivatives markets turn more bullish. But for now, the signals lean toward caution. The mix of fading spot demand and whale bearishness suggests the path of least resistance might be down, at least in the short term.
