Prediction markets show declining pardon chances
Prediction market traders actually reduced the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried after his parents gave that CNN interview. It’s interesting how that works—you’d think more public attention might help, but the numbers moved the other way.
Polymarket now shows just an 11% chance of a pardon happening this year. Kalshi’s even lower at 9%. Both platforms dropped a couple percentage points after Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried appeared on CNN on March 21. The shift wasn’t huge, but it was noticeable. Maybe traders saw the interview as counterproductive somehow.
Parents defend their son’s actions
In the interview with Michael Smerconish, Bankman and Fried really stuck to their guns. They said they believe the judgment against their son was wrong. “There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud,” Bankman stated. Both acknowledged that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but they argued those funds weren’t misused.
Bankman claimed Alameda “acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.” He insisted “the money was always there” and said Alameda had enough backing to cover its positions. Fried echoed this, saying, “All the money, it was there, every penny of it.” She argued the assets ended up in the FTX estate during bankruptcy anyway.
Legal and political hurdles remain
The parents’ defense has brought their own connections to FTX back into focus. Bankman worked as a paid adviser to the exchange, while Fried was described as a political consultant. During FTX’s bankruptcy in 2023, the estate actually sued them in Delaware, trying to recover funds and property it said were improperly transferred.
That complaint mentioned discussions about a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas. It also alleged Bankman helped sustain a culture of misstatements and poor management inside the company. That case was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, so it could potentially be refiled.
Appeal faces uphill battle
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son. The filing argues that new testimony would challenge three key government claims: that FTX was insolvent on November 11, 2022, that customers had no real prospect of repayment, and that Alameda regularly carried a multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX.
The family has tried to frame this politically. Fried said, “Sam’s prosecution was essentially political,” and argued parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry. But public support seems thin. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, “I hope the president doesn’t fall for that. […] He hurt a lot of people.”
Trump has reportedly indicated he wouldn’t pardon Bankman-Fried either. So prediction market traders don’t have much reason to be optimistic. The numbers suggest a pardon remains unlikely in 2026, and the parents’ media appearance might have actually made things slightly worse in terms of public perception.
It’s a strange situation where more attention doesn’t necessarily mean better odds. The markets seem to be reading the political tea leaves, and right now, those leaves don’t look favorable for a pardon.
