Staking Activity Shows Major Reversal
I’ve been watching the Solana staking metrics closely, and there’s something happening that feels worth noting. The data shows a pretty significant shift in how people are approaching their SOL holdings. Back in late November, things looked different – there was strong conviction with over 6.34 million SOL being staked in just one week. That was a major accumulation phase.
But now, that trend has completely flipped. By mid-January, weekly staking flows turned negative. The week ending January 19 showed net unstaking of about 449,819 SOL. Then, by February 2, this worsened to 1,155,788 SOL. That’s roughly a 150% increase in unstaking within just two weeks. When you see numbers shift that quickly, it makes you wonder what’s driving the change.
Exchange Activity and Speculative Positioning
The staking collapse is starting to show up in exchange flows too. There’s this metric that tracks how much SOL moves onto or off exchanges over a 30-day period. On February 1, it showed strong buying pressure with about 2.25 million SOL moving off exchanges. But by February 3, that had weakened to around 1.66 million SOL. In just two days, exchange outflows dropped by nearly 26%.
What’s interesting is that this decline in buying is happening while unstaking is accelerating. More SOL is becoming available for trading just as demand appears to be weakening. That combination can create some pressure on price.
At the same time, I’m noticing more speculative activity. The data shows that short-term holders – those holding for one day to one week – increased their share from 3.51% to 5.06% between February 2 and February 3. This group tends to enter during volatility and exit quickly. We saw similar behavior in late January when their share dropped as price fell.
Technical Structure and Price Levels
The technical picture seems to mirror what the on-chain data is showing. SOL has been trading inside a descending channel since November, and it’s now near the lower boundary around $96. The critical $98 support zone has already been lost.
If this current support fails, the next major downside target appears to be near $67 based on Fibonacci projections. A deeper move could extend toward $65, which would represent about a 30% breakdown from the channel structure.
On the upside, recovery looks difficult right now. The first level that needs to be reclaimed is $98, followed by stronger resistance near $117. That $117 level capped multiple rallies in January. A sustained move above that would be needed to really change the current structure.
Putting It All Together
When I look at everything together – the staking collapse, the slowing exchange buying, the increase in speculative positioning – it creates a situation where more SOL is entering circulation just as technical support is weakening. Unless long-term accumulation returns, the setup seems vulnerable to further downside.
The price action feels like it’s at a critical point. With SOL hovering near $96 and the combination of technical weakness and rising liquid supply, there’s definitely some risk here. I think the key thing to watch is whether that channel support holds or if we see acceleration in selling pressure.
It’s worth remembering that markets can shift quickly, and sometimes these patterns reverse when least expected. But based on the current data, the risks appear elevated. The $65 level keeps coming up in analysis, and while that might seem like a significant drop from current levels, the technical structure suggests it’s within the realm of possibility if current trends continue.
