Bitcoin, which at one point was trading as low as $74,604 earlier today, is experiencing a slight resurgence with current prices hovering above $79,000. Despite this minimal rebound, the asset is down 3.1% from the previous day and roughly 30% from its January peak of over $109,000. CryptoQuant contributor, IT Tech, suggests that a significant shift in the market could be on the horizon.
In their analysis titled “Massive spike in Exchange Inflow CDD signals old coins are waking up,” IT Tech observes a significant rise in the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric. This measure tracks the movement of older coins that have stayed in one place for an extended period of time. A high CDD often indicates that long-term holders are moving their assets to exchanges, potentially signaling an intention to sell.
Historically, large price corrections have followed spikes in Exchange Inflow CDD. IT Tech points out that the recent surge in this metric coincided with Bitcoin’s drop from $82,000 to $76,000. This indicates that some veteran holders may be preparing to liquidate their positions.
Such a move can increase sell pressure on the market, particularly during volatile periods. These shifts might suggest a turning point where older investors look to secure profits in the face of broader market uncertainty. If this trend continues, it could serve as a bearish signal, as coins that have been dormant for months or even years re-enter circulation.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Bilal Huseynov provides insights into short-term holder behavior in a separate analysis. By examining realized prices for coins held by short-term investors, Huseynov can gauge the health of the current market trend.
These UTXO age bands help determine whether recent buyers are profiting or losing. In bullish phases, these bands trend upwards, indicating accumulation. However, when the market peaks, these lines often flatten or decline, indicating distribution by short-term participants.
Huseynov notes that current data reflect a downward curve for the 1-month to 3-month realized price. This pattern echoes previous peaks in April and November 2021, and more recently in March 2025.
If this trend continues, it could signify that newer holders are facing losses and may soon capitulate, potentially leading to further downside. Interestingly, in past bear cycles, these bands have often marked bottom zones where prices found support and reversed.
With all these indicators, the cryptocurrency market is at a potentially critical juncture. The decisions of long-term and short-term holders, in the face of market volatility, will be crucial in determining the direction Bitcoin will take in the upcoming period.
