Bitcoin is once again making waves in the financial markets as it surges past the critical $109,000 resistance level, trading at $109,252 at the time of writing. The latest upward move follows a steady climb from the $100,000 mark earlier this month, reigniting optimism among investors. But while the breakout is a welcome development for bulls, seasoned traders are keeping a close eye on whether this rally has the legs to sustain—or if history is about to repeat itself.
The memory of Bitcoin’s late-May performance looms large. Back then, BTC staged a similar breakout above $109,000, only to reverse sharply and shed nearly 10% of its value in a matter of days. That false breakout left many traders nursing losses, and the fear of another fakeout is palpable. The current pullback from today’s peak of $109,678—visible on the 2-hour chart—has only deepened the sense of caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 67, edging toward overbought territory and hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.
For now, all eyes are on key support levels. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $109,000, the next critical zone lies near $106,700, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Further down, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $106,032 could act as a safety net. A drop below this range would likely confirm another bearish rejection, reinforcing the pattern seen in May.
Yet, not all signals point to an impending downturn. If BTC manages to consolidate above $109,000 and establish it as a new support floor, the next target could be $115,000—a psychological milestone that could attract fresh buying interest. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with institutional inflows and macroeconomic factors playing pivotal roles. Positive developments, such as stronger ETF demand or favorable regulatory news, could provide the fuel needed for a sustained rally.
Traders are bracing for volatility either way. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this breakout marks the beginning of a larger upward trend or just another bull trap. For now, the market holds its breath, waiting to see if Bitcoin can defy history—or fall victim to it once again.
