Bitcoin Holds Steady as Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged
Bitcoin didn’t move much on Wednesday, staying around $104,200 after the Federal Reserve decided—no surprise here—to leave interest rates where they are. The benchmark rate stayed at 4.25% to 4.50%, exactly what most analysts had predicted.
But the bigger story might be what the Fed didn’t do. Policymakers still think they’ll cut rates twice this year, but they’re in no hurry. Inflation’s been stubborn, partly because of those new tariffs, and that’s got them hesitating.
What the Fed’s Dot Plot Tells Us
The Fed’s latest projections, including that always-scrutinized dot plot, suggest rates could drop to 3.9% by the end of 2025. That’d mean two 25-basis-point cuts this year. After that, though, things slow down. Rates might hit 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027—still higher than some investors had hoped.
Jerome Powell, speaking after the meeting, made it clear hikes aren’t on the table right now. But he also didn’t sound like a man in a rush to cut. “We’ll make a smarter decision if we wait a couple of months,” he said, pointing to all the uncertainty around tariffs and inflation.
He had a point about the job market, too. It’s not exactly weak, so there’s no pressure to act. “The labor market is not crying out for a rate cut,” Powell noted. That patience might frustrate some traders, but it’s not shocking.
Inflation and Growth: A Mixed Picture
The Fed’s updated numbers show inflation might stick around longer than they thought back in March. They’re now expecting PCE inflation at 3% for 2025, with core PCE at 3.1%. Not terrible, but not great either.
Growth looks softer too. GDP projections got trimmed to 1.4%, and unemployment could climb to 4.5% this year—staying there through 2026. That’s not a disaster, but it’s not exactly encouraging.
Markets didn’t freak out, though. Stocks actually ticked up a bit after the announcement. Bitcoin? Barely budged. Maybe everyone’s just used to waiting by now.
The takeaway? The Fed’s playing it safe. They’ll cut when they’re sure, and not a moment sooner. For Bitcoin and everything else, that means more of the same—at least for a while.
