Bitcoin’s downward trend continues
Bitcoin price action suggests we might see a retest of the $60,000 level soon. The cryptocurrency has lost its $65,000 support, which many analysts considered a key psychological and technical level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,846, down about 4.6% over the past day.
What’s perhaps more concerning is the broader trend. Bitcoin has now declined for five consecutive months since hitting its all-time high back in October. If this continues through the end of the month, it would mark the second-longest monthly losing streak in Bitcoin’s entire history. That’s not something you see every day.
Market sentiment has taken a real hit too. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped four points to just 5, which puts it deep in the “Extreme Fear” territory. When sentiment gets this bad, it often signals that we’re approaching some kind of turning point, but timing that turn is always the tricky part.
Macro pressures weighing on crypto
Caroline Mauron from Orbit Markets told Bloomberg that the crypto market remains fragile right now. Traders are watching that $60,000 support level closely. She pointed to rising tensions involving Iran and uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs as key pressure points.
Over the weekend, President Trump raised a proposed global tariff rate from 10% to 15%. The policy change has unsettled broader markets, and traditional safe havens like gold and silver have responded more favorably than risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin still behaves more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive hedge in this current climate.
Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, thinks Bitcoin would need to reclaim $70,000 to restore any real bullish momentum. But with $65,000 now breached, the probability of testing $60,000 has increased significantly.
On-chain data paints a bearish picture
The data from Glassnode adds to the concerning outlook. The seven-day EMA of Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss sits near -$480 million. That’s an improvement from the -$1.24 billion we saw on February 6th, but it still signals a market under pressure.
While realized losses have eased from those peak capitulation levels, the market remains sell-side dominant. Glassnode notes that investor capitulation is still unfolding as Bitcoin works through what might be a broader bottoming process. It’s that uncomfortable phase where weak hands are getting shaken out.
Some glimmers in futures positioning
There are some early signs that institutional positioning might be shifting, though. A recent report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that large traders in CME Bitcoin futures reduced their short exposure significantly.
Net positioning moved from roughly +1,000 contracts a month ago to -1,600 contracts recently. That suggests some institutional players may have flipped from net short to net long. Last April saw a similar change in positioning, which was followed by a 70% increase in Bitcoin prices.
But analysts are quick to warn that positioning data by itself doesn’t prove a bottom. The risk of a decline to $40,000 still exists if important support levels fail. It’s one of those situations where you have conflicting signals – some data suggests potential stabilization, while other indicators point to continued pressure.
What I think is happening is that Bitcoin is caught between these macro tensions and its own internal market dynamics. The tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions create headwinds, while on-chain metrics show we’re in a capitulation phase. The futures positioning shift is interesting, but whether it signals a true turning point or just temporary positioning is hard to say.
The $60,000 level will be crucial to watch. If it holds, we might see some stabilization. If it breaks, well, then we’re looking at potentially deeper declines. It’s one of those moments where patience might be more valuable than action.
