Bitcoin’s 2020 Pattern Repeats
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has observed something interesting about Bitcoin’s recent price action. He noticed that last month’s rally closely mirrored what happened back in September 2020. The pattern was almost identical – Bitcoin held the bull market support band throughout the month, showing two weeks of price growth followed by two weeks of sideways movement.
It’s a curious parallel, especially when you consider that 2020 was the year before Bitcoin’s last major peak. Back then, Bitcoin ended the year around $29,000 before eventually climbing to $69,000 in November 2021. That was the cycle top for that period.
2025 Peak Prediction
Despite seeing these similarities with 2020, Cowen maintains that Bitcoin will reach its cycle peak this year. He’s been consistent with this view, though he acknowledges the conflicting signals. His analysis suggests Bitcoin will follow its historical cycle pattern and top sometime in the fourth quarter of 2025.
I find this interesting because it goes against what some might expect given the 2020 comparison. If Bitcoin were truly following that exact pattern, you’d think the peak would come later. But Cowen seems to believe the timing is compressed or different this time around.
Alternative Views Emerge
Not everyone agrees with Cowen’s timeline, though. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has been quite vocal about his belief that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer valid. He’s predicting Bitcoin could continue rallying into 2026, which would extend the current cycle significantly.
Market strategist Raoul Pal shares a similar perspective, calling this a “business cycle” rather than following the typical crypto pattern. He’s looking at a potential peak in the second quarter of 2026, which would give the market much more runway than Cowen anticipates.
Several other prominent figures in the space seem to lean toward the extended cycle theory. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor all appear to share the sentiment that this bull market might have longer legs than previous ones.
Market Uncertainty Remains
What strikes me about these differing predictions is how much uncertainty still exists in crypto markets. Even experienced analysts who study these patterns daily can arrive at completely different conclusions based on the same data.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between, or maybe we’re seeing the emergence of new patterns as institutional money flows into Bitcoin. The traditional four-year cycle theory has served well in the past, but markets evolve, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
For investors, this divergence of opinion highlights the importance of doing your own research and not relying too heavily on any single prediction. The market has a way of surprising everyone, regardless of how convincing the analysis might seem.
