Financial analyst Alex Krüger is setting his sights on tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting, and he’s leaning toward a particular outcome. He’s anticipating what he calls a “dovish rate cut,” even if a lot of that expectation is already baked into current market prices. It’s a tricky thing to predict, of course, but that’s his read on the situation.
He mentioned he’ll be publishing some deeper thoughts on the FOMC decision and the broader economic picture soon. But for now, he’s making it clear that his overall outlook hasn’t really shifted. “I’m still optimistic about stocks and Bitcoin,” he said. He added a note of caution, or maybe it was a reminder, about the crypto’s nature: markets, he thinks, tend to forget just how quickly Bitcoin can change direction and pick up speed.
Bitcoin’s Path to a New High
Despite some headwinds—like Michael Saylor’s company having less immediate buying power and some early investors cashing out their gains—Krüger is sticking with a bullish year-end prediction. He believes it’s actually quite likely that Bitcoin will challenge and surpass its previous all-time high before we close out the year. It’s not a guarantee, but he sees a solid path for it to happen.
The Math Behind the Movement
He didn’t just leave it at a gut feeling, either. Krüger broke it down with some math, arguing that volatility isn’t linear; it scales with the square root of time. So, if Bitcoin’s realized volatility holds steady around that 40% mark for the rest of the year, that works out to roughly 23% volatility for the next four-month period.
What does that percentage actually mean for the price? According to his calculations, that kind of movement could potentially push Bitcoin toward the $136,000 range. That would represent a climb of about 23% from its current level. It’s a big number, and it certainly gives traders something to ponder.
Of course, this is all just one analyst’s perspective on the possibilities. The crypto market is famously unpredictable, and Fed decisions can send ripples—or waves—through all sorts of assets. It’s probably wise to remember that this is a market observation, not any sort of recommendation.
*This is not investment advice.
