Bitcoin has lost a technical level that had supported the case for a fresh bull run. The largest cryptocurrency fell below its 50-week simple moving average, a shift that reverses a signal from September. $BTC traded below $73,400 at the time of writing, compared with a 50-week SMA of $75,153. That puts the token below a line analysts watch for trend direction.
A failed breakout
The move marks a failed breakout. Technical analysts often read that pattern as a sign sellers have regained control. In September, bitcoin pushed above the 50-week average with enough force to convince several analysts, including Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn, that a new bull phase had started. Thorn’s work showed that in four of five completed bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week SMA led to a bull run. The exception was the 2021-22 cycle, when two brief reclaims were followed by a deeper selloff. For now, that bullish view is invalid.
ETF outflows and dollar pressure
The technical breakdown is happening alongside large outflows from spot ETFs, which recently pointed to weak institutional demand. Crypto market maker Wintermute said it remains cautious while $BTC sits under its 50-week average. It put $68,000 as the next level down and said a reclaim of $80,000 would change its view. The dollar has also added pressure. The Dollar Index briefly topped 103, the highest since March 2025. A stronger dollar can make bitcoin and the wider crypto market less attractive to investors.
What could change the picture
Some observers still see room for a turn. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said much of the recent hawkish tone may already be reflected in prices. He argued the balance of risk tilts toward profit-taking on dollar longs, and narrower U.S. yield differentials would ease pressure on crypto. Kruger said Fed commentary and Friday’s U.S. producer price inflation report are the next tests for that view. Markets also see a December Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as largely baked in, he said, though much of that hawkishness may already be reflected in prices. The conflict with Iran remains a swing factor through oil prices, where renewed supply pressure could keep inflation concerns elevated. If those catalysts give the dollar little reason to extend gains, he sees scope for bitcoin to lead a recovery. Elsewhere, some observers worry MSCI’s exclusion of Strategy from its indexes could hamper the company’s ability to raise money for bitcoin purchases. They add that much of the bad news may already be priced in.
