Sentiment turns neutral
Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have lost summer momentum. The crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56 on Monday, a neutral reading, after hitting extreme greed in late August. The index peaked at 82 on Aug. 26 and stood at 68 a month ago. The gauge runs from 0 to 100, where 0 means extreme fear and 100 means extreme greed.
Bitcoin traded just above $82,000 and is down close to 5% for the week. It reached $86,978 early last week, then slid as low as $81,749.83 on Oct. 8, before recovering to roughly $83,800 on Monday. Bitcoin sits about 34% below its all-time high above $126,000, set on Oct. 6, 2025.
The summer rally had looked strong. Bitcoin rose 24.9% in August, enough for Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee and Crypto Quant’s Kim Yong Yu to call an end to the bear market. But demand for crypto bets has cooled.
ETF flows show cooling demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million last Wednesday, their worst day since June. They shed another $244.1 million the following day. A $21.1 million inflow on Friday left the funds down a net $386.3 million for October. Ethereum funds extended their outflow streak to nine days, with $635 million out this month.
Macro pressure weighs on risk assets
Macro headwinds have also weighed on Bitcoin. Brent crude topped $101 a barrel last week as ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz piled up. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002. Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin sold off together that day, which points to a macro trade rather than a crypto problem. Brent is near $110 today, even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not engage in war at least until November.
Oil is an input cost for shipping, manufacturing, farming, and travel. A sustained jump in crude tends to filter into consumer prices. Higher inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and more likely to raise them. Bond investors then demand higher yields, pulling money away from riskier bets. Bitcoin pays no yield and trades alongside stocks as a risk asset, so rising yields and rate-hike expectations tend to push it lower, as they did on Oct. 7.
Prediction markets grow cautious
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, give Bitcoin a 45% chance of touching $87,500 in October. That is down from 55% on Oct. 7. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 slipped to 28% from 36%. Myriad traders also price in 56% odds that Bitcoin drops to $80,000, 33% odds for $77,500, and 20% odds on $75,000.
For now, the market looks cautious rather than fearful. The index at 56 suggests neither panic nor euphoria. Traders may wait for clearer macro signals and steadier ETF flows before making bigger bets.
