Bitcoin traded around $79,200 on Sept. 9 after recovering from its June low. Market maker Wintermute says this downturn is shallower than the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. But the key number needs context. At that price, Bitcoin is about 37% below its October 2025 record near $125,653. The 50% figure refers to the deepest drawdown earlier in the cycle, not the current spot price. Independent data shows the June trough was about 52.6% below the peak. Bitcoin closed July at $63,577, about 48.9% below the record. The August rally cut the drawdown further as it closed above $78,000.
What Wintermute Actually Measured
Wintermute’s Sept. 7 update said cycle bottoms have become shallower. It cited declines of about 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022 and roughly 50% now. At 340 days past the peak, Bitcoin is down about 50%, versus more than 75% in the two prior bears. Still, 50% is not today’s drawdown. It likely describes the deepest point or a chart cutoff. The larger claim holds: this cycle has not produced a 75% to 80% collapse. Whether that proves market maturity remains open.
ETF Demand and Market Structure
Wintermute credits ETFs and institutions entering earlier during weakness. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $987 million in net inflows in the week ended Sept. 4. That was their third straight positive week and brought total inflows across that period to about $3.8 billion. Daily flows were uneven. Sept. 3 saw a $731 million inflow, followed by about $175 million on Sept. 4. Outflows then returned as the new week began. ETFs give pensions, advisers and hedge funds a demand channel that did not exist in 2018. They can also sell quickly. The data does not prove June was the bottom or that downside risk is gone.
Macro and Technicals
Stronger U.S. payrolls tested Bitcoin. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier. Bitcoin fell from about $82,400 to below $80,000 after the release but kept part of its weekly gain. The Treasury also increased long-term securities buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion through Nov. 4. That may help liquidity, but it is not direct Bitcoin stimulus. Technicals show cooling momentum. The RSI was 62.18, below its 68.17 average. The MACD line crossed below its signal line, with the histogram at minus 436.98. Volume also fell after the move toward $79,000. Wintermute watches $82,000 as upside and $72,000 as the level that would weaken its view.
What Comes Next
The Fed meets Sept. 15-16. Inflation data and the policy message will test the shallower-bottom story. Continued ETF inflows would support it. Sustained outflows and a drop below $72,000 would weaken it. The evidence supports one narrow point: this cycle’s deepest loss is much smaller than 2018 and 2022. It does not confirm June was the final bottom or that future bears cannot be deeper. Macro conditions, ETF flows and price action around $72,000 and $82,000 remain key.
