The Bitcoin Distribution Phase
It’s been frustrating for many Bitcoin holders to watch traditional markets hit record highs while BTC seems stuck in a sideways pattern. But perhaps we’re looking at this all wrong. A recent viral essay by traditional finance manager Jordi Visser offers a different perspective that makes a lot of sense when you think about it.
Visser calls this Bitcoin’s “silent IPO” – even though Bitcoin never had a traditional public offering. The dynamics at play right now are remarkably similar to what happens after major tech IPOs. Early investors who took enormous risks years ago are finally getting their chance to realize gains.
How Early Investors Exit
Think about Facebook’s IPO back in 2012. The stock dropped about 30% in the year following its public debut. This wasn’t necessarily because of poor management or business problems. It was largely because early investors – from Harvard classmates to early employees who took stock instead of cash – were finally able to sell their positions.
These investors don’t just dump everything at once. They’re methodical about it. They’ve waited years for this moment, so they can certainly wait a few more months to sell carefully without crashing the price. The result is exactly what we’re seeing: a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.
On-Chain Evidence
The on-chain data tells a clear story if you know how to read it. Old coins that haven’t moved in years – some dating back to when Bitcoin was in single digits – are suddenly becoming active. This isn’t random selling. It’s early holders taking advantage of the market’s new liquidity.
For years, these large holders couldn’t exit significant positions without causing chaos. Try selling $100 million of Bitcoin in 2015 – you’d crater the price. Even $1 billion in 2019 would have been problematic. But now, with ETFs providing institutional demand, major companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and sovereign wealth funds getting involved, the market can finally absorb these sales.
What Comes Next
This distribution phase isn’t a bear market in the traditional sense. It’s a transfer of ownership from early believers to new institutional holders. In traditional markets, this process can take 6-18 months. Even though crypto cycles often move faster, we might still have several more months of this frustrating price action.
Sentiment will likely only improve after the distribution is substantially complete. People get demoralized because they don’t understand what phase we’re in. They’re waiting for Bitcoin to “catch up” to stocks or worrying about the four-year cycle. But once the heavy selling pressure lifts and institutions have absorbed the original supply, the path forward becomes much clearer.
This is actually a bullish development for Bitcoin’s long-term health. The market is maturing, becoming more resilient, and building a stronger foundation. It’s just that the process of getting there can be frustrating for those expecting constant upward movement.
