Benjamin Cowen, an analyst closely tracking Bitcoin developments, unveiled a chart on February 18, 2025, highlighting the fluctuation in Bitcoin’s social risk metric over the years. The chart effectively brings to light how public sentiment and perception have influenced Bitcoin’s price movements, reinforcing the strong correlation between Bitcoin price rises and social risk spikes.
The data set forth by Cowen reveals an inverse relationship between the social risk metric and Bitcoin’s price. When Bitcoin has experienced bull runs, leading to significant price jumps, its social risk has conversely decreased to notably low levels. Currently, the social risk is at 0.223, a record low since mid-2016, suggesting that market volatility concerning Bitcoin is less pronounced now than in the preceding years.
The historical price movements of Bitcoin further illustrate this inverse correlation. When Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 in late 2017, it was followed by a crash to just over $3,000 by December 2018. A similar pattern was observed during the bull run from 2020 to 2021, where Bitcoin surged from $7,000 to almost $65,000 and then experienced a downturn in 2022. During these periods of significant price fluctuation, the total social risk, represented by the red line in Cowen’s chart, invariably moved in the opposite direction. The spikes in social risk during these extreme price movements signify the emotional response of the public, particularly those influenced by media narratives.
Delving deeper into the social risk breakdown, it is evident that Bitcoin’s risk linked to YouTube views and Twitter analysis is particularly prominent. The risk associated with YouTube views peaked during the late 2017 bull run and has remained volatile since, indicating the crucial role that social media platforms play in shaping Bitcoin’s perceived value. Similarly, the risk emerging from Twitter exchanges underscores the market’s susceptibility to the views and comments of influential figures.
As we move further into 2025, the social risk metrics across these platforms are significantly lower than their previous highs, pointing to a more stable market sentiment. As Bitcoin hovers around the $100k mark, many analysts, including Cowen, maintain that the market remains robust but is highly sensitive to shifts in social media sentiment. The current low risk value suggests that public enthusiasm has subsided, indicating a more cautious market outlook.
Cowen’s social risk chart implies that if this trend of low social risk continues, Bitcoin may experience a period of price stability or even a potential breakout if public sentiment swings positively. However, as past trends indicate, the social risk associated with Bitcoin can rapidly transition from low to high, causing a significant impact on price direction. This underlines the importance for investors to keep a close watch on these metrics.
