Market Structure Shows Bearish Signals
Bitcoin is hovering in the mid-$70,000 range as Asian trading begins, but the underlying data tells a concerning story. I think what’s happening here is more structural than just a temporary dip. CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report shows their Bull Score Index sitting at zero, which is pretty telling. Bitcoin is trading well below its October peak, and the market seems to be operating with fewer buyers and tighter liquidity.
Glassnode data supports this picture too. Spot volumes look weak, and there’s what analysts are calling a “demand vacuum” – selling pressure isn’t being met with sustained buying. It’s not panic selling, but rather a lack of participation. That’s perhaps more worrying in some ways.
Institutional Flows Reverse Course
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have flipped from net accumulators to net sellers compared to this time last year. That creates a significant demand gap – we’re talking tens of thousands of bitcoin difference. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative since October, which suggests U.S. investors aren’t stepping in despite lower prices.
Historically, strong bull phases have coincided with solid U.S. spot demand. That engine seems to be idling right now. Stablecoin expansion has also stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. That typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, so its absence matters.
Technical and Macro Pressures
Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average. On-chain valuation bands are clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor. Longer-term demand growth has collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this isn’t just leverage being flushed out – participation itself is fading.
The macro backdrop adds another layer. Bitcoin is behaving more like high-beta software than digital gold lately. Prediction markets show traders leaning toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits prospects for near-term liquidity relief.
Politics complicate the policy narrative too. President Trump’s recent comments about his Fed nominee and remarks about rate hikes have tempered earlier optimism about central bank independence. It creates uncertainty.
Market Movements and Regional Impact
Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid-$70,000s after briefly testing support. Rebounds have faded quickly as spot demand remains thin. Ether is struggling just above the low $2,000s, unable to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softens.
Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying. U.S.-Iran tensions and softer private payroll data contributed to this move.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by about 0.3% as chip and tech stocks tracked Wall Street’s sell-off. Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared to regional peers, but the overall picture is one of caution.
The result is a market defined less by shock than by absence. Bounces remain possible, but conviction seems thin. It’s a waiting game, with participants watching both technical levels and macro developments closely.
