Well, it looks like bitcoin’s recent run-up might be catching its breath. And part of the reason could be tied to the companies that have been buying it up the most.
DATs Are Seeing Their Premiums Shrink
According to research from Standard Chartered Bank, something called modified net asset values—or mNAVs—for these digital asset treasury companies are trending down. These are the firms, like Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR), that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Just this Monday, MicroStrategy announced it bought another 525 bitcoin. That brings its total hoard to a staggering 638,985 BTC. But here’s the thing: even with that huge purchase, the company’s mNAV dipped to 1.47.
So what is mNAV? It’s basically a measure of a company’s enterprise value compared to the dollar amount of the bitcoin it holds. There was a time, not too long ago, when a company like MicroStrategy could command an mNAV as high as 3.00. That meant the market was valuing the firm at three times the value of its bitcoin stash.
Why a Lower mNAV Matters
But that premium seems to be fading. With more companies jumping into the game, that special valuation is getting squeezed. Standard Chartered’s research suggests these mNAVs are moving closer to 1.00. And that, perhaps, is a problem.
The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, pointed out that when the mNAV gets that low, it gets a lot harder for these companies to justify buying more bitcoin. Their share prices have been falling lately, which makes it tougher to use equity to fund new purchases. It creates a kind of stall.
“A higher mNAV means a business is more sustainable,” Kendrick said in a note. It means they can, and probably will, buy more coins. “A lower mNAV means the opposite.”
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
This might help explain why bitcoin’s price momentum has slowed a bit. At the time of writing, the price was hovering around $114,883, pretty much flat and down just half a percent over 24 hours. It’s been trading in a fairly tight range since Sunday.
Other market metrics aren’t showing much drama either. The market cap moved with the price, sitting at $2.28 trillion. Trading volume did see a healthy jump after the weekend, which is pretty normal. One interesting note is that bitcoin’s dominance—its share of the total crypto market—actually inched up a bit to 58.22%.
Futures markets also looked quiet. Open interest was mostly unchanged. It seems like everyone is just watching, waiting to see what happens next with these key corporate buyers.
