Market Momentum Builds on Economic Concerns
Bitcoin climbed to $117,400 in early October trading, marking nearly a 4% gain over the past day. The broader crypto market followed suit, with most major altcoins posting even stronger returns. This positive start to what’s historically been crypto’s strongest quarter comes amid fresh economic data that suggests the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has more room to run.
Private sector employment figures released Wednesday showed the largest decline in 2.5 years, with companies cutting 32,000 jobs in September according to ADP. The previous month’s numbers were also revised downward from a gain to a loss. I think this weaker labor market data, combined with manufacturing price pressures easing more than expected, creates an environment where continued monetary easing seems increasingly likely.
Fed Expectations Shift Dramatically
Market participants are now almost universally expecting another rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, up from just 92% a week ago. This shift reflects growing concerns about economic momentum slowing more than anticipated.
What’s interesting is that traders would normally be focused on the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due Friday, but that release will probably be delayed because of the government shutdown. So we’re left with partial data points that collectively paint a picture of weakening growth.
September Performance Defies Historical Trends
September has traditionally been a difficult month for crypto assets, but bitcoin actually managed to gain about 6% during the month. That’s one of its best September performances in recent memory, which perhaps signals underlying strength that wasn’t apparent in the broader market sentiment.
The final days of September also saw significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs—around $950 million—more than reversing the previous week’s outflows. This suggests institutional interest remains resilient despite the uncertain macro backdrop.
Outlook for the Coming Quarter
Analysts like Noelle Acheson of Crypto Is Macro Now believe the current quarter could mark the beginning of a sustained crypto bull market. Her view is driven by expectations of continued rate cuts and potential additional policy support if economic conditions worsen further.
She also thinks this environment should benefit altcoins, with new spot ETFs likely coming to market and shifting investor attention toward smaller, more volatile tokens. The coming months might see what some call ‘alt-season’ as focus moves away from bitcoin and ether toward other projects.
Of course, predictions are just that—predictions. The market has surprised before, and it could surprise again. But the combination of monetary policy support and improving technical momentum creates what appears to be a favorable setup for digital assets in the near term.
