Bitcoin saw a 4.37% rally on July 14th, which some analysts think could be a sign that a bottom is forming. The move followed a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This data point triggered a big shift in how investors see the market.
Rate Hike Chances Drop
According to FedWatch data, the market now sees only a 16.6% chance of a rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That is down sharply from 41.7% just one day before the CPI report came out. At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved closer to the “Neutral” zone, a level it hasn’t reached since mid-May. These signals together point to better risk appetite among traders. That gives Bitcoin a stronger macro environment as it tries to break through higher resistance levels.
Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, shared his thoughts with AMBCrypto. He said the CPI report might be the push needed to break the $64,000 level. “This may be the push we need to finally break the $64k level and push towards $66k as Bitcoin within the last 3 years on average has returned +2.8% after a cooler than expected CPI print as it is a barometer of risk,” Mena said. He added that a break above $66,000 could set Bitcoin up to retest $70,000 and maybe even $75,000 by the end of the month. That would be a level not seen since late May.
Long Positions and Bull Trap Risks
Data from Glassnode shows that long positions on Bitcoin have climbed back to levels last seen when BTC traded around $83,000. This suggests traders are aggressively rebuilding leveraged long exposure as bullish sentiment returns. But there is a big question here. Is the improving macro backdrop and the rise in the Fear and Greed Index enough to confirm a Bitcoin bottom? If not, this spike in long positioning could just be another wave of overleveraged bets. That would increase the risk of a bull trap. This is where the alignment between Bitcoin’s technicals and on-chain fundamentals becomes important.
Fundamentals Support a Stronger Recovery
The market is already pricing in a $100,000 quarter-end target for Bitcoin. Mena believes this target isn’t just about sentiment. Improving on-chain fundamentals are starting to support Bitcoin’s recovery, suggesting the current setup goes beyond just a CPI-driven rally. “With Spot Bitcoin ETFs turning positive with $400m in net flows in the last week alone, and potential progress on the CLARITY Act, fundamentals and technicals are starting to align for a $100k push by quarter-end, setting up a potential retest of the $126k all-time high by year-end or early 2027,” Mena told AMBCrypto.
On-chain data already backs this view. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC has grown by nearly 0.4% since June, with more than 4,000 new holders joining the network. Meanwhile, Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) has seen a sharp rise in exchange outflows. Around 326 WBTC left exchanges in a single day, marking the largest net outflow since June. Since WBTC is a key source of Bitcoin liquidity, these outflows suggest more investors are moving their holdings into DeFi protocols. This reinforces the growing fundamental strength behind Bitcoin’s rally.
Taken together, the $100,000 Bitcoin target no longer looks far-fetched. The macro backdrop has improved, technicals are building, and fundamentals continue to strengthen. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could break above $66,000 in the near term, opening the door for a move toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range by month-end.
