Bitcoin Shows Resilience During Geopolitical Tension
Tom Lee from Fundstrat made an interesting observation recently. He told CNBC that bitcoin just faced what he called its “most demanding exam”—and apparently, it passed. This happened during the Future Proof conference in Miami, where Lee pointed to the weekend rally as evidence that bitcoin might be restoring its ability to function as a store of value during geopolitical stress.
What’s particularly notable is the timing. Bitcoin held above $70,000 while crude oil prices climbed sharply following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In previous market cycles, this combination would typically push bitcoin lower alongside other risk-off assets. But this time, it didn’t follow that pattern.
Addressing the October 2025 Weakness
Lee did acknowledge a weak point in bitcoin’s recent history. During the massive deleveraging event of October 2025, gold rose while bitcoin fell. That episode reopened the debate about whether the digital asset genuinely serves as a safe haven during market turmoil.
His explanation was straightforward. The October 2025 deleveraging was the largest in crypto market history—an event of exceptional magnitude that forced broad liquidations regardless of underlying fundamentals. Lee seems to think that chapter is now closed, and the recent behavior during oil volatility supports that view.
Market Correction Already Behind Us
Lee presented a clear picture of where he thinks the current cycle stands. According to his analysis, the market already absorbed its full correction across three simultaneous fronts: software stocks, the Magnificent 7 tech companies, and cryptocurrencies themselves. That process cleared out much of the speculation and excess leverage that had built up through 2024 and early 2025.
With that excess out of the system, the structural conditions for what Lee calls a “durable recovery” improve considerably. It’s an interesting perspective, though I think we should be cautious about declaring any market phase definitively over.
On-Chain Data Supports Accumulation Narrative
There’s some on-chain data that partially supports Lee’s thesis. Binance Research recorded withdrawals of approximately 29,000 BTC from exchanges while the price traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. This pattern stands in direct contrast to the prior sell-off, when bitcoin dropped from $92,000 to $62,000.
During that earlier decline, exchange balances were rising—a classic signal of selling pressure. The reversal in exchange flows now supports what Lee calls the accumulation narrative. It suggests that rather than selling into exchanges, holders are moving bitcoin off exchanges, which typically indicates a preference for holding rather than immediate selling.
At the time of the analysis, bitcoin traded near $70,000, down just 0.2% over 24 hours after briefly touching $71,600. On a weekly basis, the asset gained 3%, and across two weeks it added nearly 7%. Still, it remains 12% below its year-ago level and more than 44% off its October 2025 all-time high.
Lee’s broader market outlook includes a positive projection for March and points to 5,300 on the S&P 500 as a target for later in the year. He did warn of a potential 20% decline at some point, most likely when markets stop responding positively to good news.
The takeaway here seems to be that bitcoin’s behavior during recent geopolitical stress represents a meaningful test—one that it passed, according to Lee. Whether this marks a permanent shift in how bitcoin responds to global events remains to be seen, but it’s certainly worth watching.
