Bitcoin’s recovery from weekend volatility
Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 on Tuesday morning in East Asia time. This marked a pretty quick recovery from a weekend selloff that had briefly pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $65,000. The weekend dip came during some geopolitical uncertainty, but things seem to be stabilizing now.
I think what’s interesting here is how Bitcoin behaved compared to other assets. When crude oil prices surged amid fears about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin initially dipped alongside other risk assets. But then it stabilized in the mid-$60,000 range fairly quickly. Market maker Enflux noted this resilience in a note to CoinDesk.
Institutional demand remains steady
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, which is probably helping support the price. According to data from SoSoValue, these ETFs drew about $568 million in net inflows last week. That followed $787 million the week before. Cumulative net inflows across these products have now passed $55 billion.
Early data for Monday showed about $57 million in U.S. inflows, though not all issuers had reported when the article was published. This institutional demand seems to be providing some underlying support even when retail sentiment might be wavering.
Market indicators show stabilization
Onchain and derivatives data suggest the market is finding its footing after recent volatility. Glassnode analysts wrote in a report that conditions are stabilizing, with momentum, ETF demand, and profitability metrics improving modestly. But they also noted that capital flows remain soft, speculative participation is limited, and broader conviction hasn’t fully returned yet.
That last point feels important to me. While the price recovery looks good on the surface, there might not be as much conviction behind it as some headlines suggest. Markets can be funny that way—sometimes prices move without the underlying sentiment really shifting.
Trader expectations shift quickly
Prediction markets reflect how quickly sentiment can change. On Polymarket, the odds that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in March jumped to about 56% on Monday. That’s up from roughly 34% just a day earlier. It shows how trader expectations shifted almost immediately as Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level.
But I wonder if this optimism might be getting ahead of itself. The Glassnode report mentioned that broader conviction hasn’t fully returned, and that seems worth keeping in mind. Markets can be emotional, and prediction markets especially so.
Overall, Bitcoin’s recovery above $70,000 shows some resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. The ETF inflows provide a steady source of demand, and onchain metrics suggest stabilization. Yet the limited speculative participation and soft capital flows suggest we might not be out of the woods completely. It’s a mixed picture, really—some positive signs, but also reasons for caution.
