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Bitcoin whale exchange ratio hits 11-year high, signaling potential volatility

Bitcoin Whale Activity Reaches Concerning Levels

Bitcoin’s price has been hovering below $70,000 this week, which honestly feels like a bit of a relief after the rough start to February. The cryptocurrency dipped to around $61,000 at the beginning of the month, which many saw as confirmation that we’re in a bear market. But even with this recent stability, new on-chain data suggests things might not be as calm as they seem.

I think what’s interesting here is that while the acute selling pressure from early February has eased—exchange inflows dropped from about 60,000 BTC to 23,000 BTC—there’s something else brewing beneath the surface. The real story might be with the big players.

Whale Ratio Hits Highest Level Since 2015

According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has climbed to 0.64. That’s the highest it’s been since 2015, which is honestly pretty significant when you think about it. What this means is that whale inflows now account for a substantial portion of all exchange deposits.

To put it simply, when large investors move their Bitcoin to exchanges, they’re usually planning to sell. The average deposit size has also reached levels not seen since mid-2022, during the worst of the last bear market. This pattern suggests institutional or large investors are behind the increasing exchange supply.

Broader Market Pressures

The altcoin market isn’t faring much better. CryptoQuant notes that altcoin exchange deposits have increased from 40,000 daily in late 2025 to 49,000 in 2026. This continuous movement out of riskier assets reflects weakened market confidence overall.

Perhaps more concerning is what’s happening with stablecoins. Net USDT flows into exchanges have fallen sharply from a one-year high of $616 million in November 2025 to just $27 million. There were even periods in late January where flows turned negative, reaching -$469 million. This decline in “dry powder” suggests there’s less buying power waiting on the sidelines.

Current Market Position

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $67,580, with a modest 1% increase over the past day. But these whale metrics make me wonder if this relative stability is just temporary. The combination of large investors moving coins to exchanges, reduced stablecoin inflows, and ongoing altcoin distribution creates a situation where downside volatility remains a real possibility.

It’s worth remembering that in the last bull cycle, institutional investors through spot ETFs played a major role in driving Bitcoin’s price action. Now, it seems the same large investor cohort could be influencing the bear market dynamics. The data suggests we should probably keep an eye on these whale movements—they might be telling us something about where the market is headed next.

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