The dollar’s influence on Bitcoin’s trajectory
Bitcoin enters the final quarter of 2025 after a somewhat turbulent September, and honestly, there’s quite a bit of discussion about whether it can keep pace with the broader cryptocurrency market’s performance. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, makes an interesting point about seasonal patterns. While Q1 and Q4 have historically been strong for digital assets, he suggests we should look beyond calendar charts.
The real story, according to Coutts, lies with the U.S. dollar. “The dollar is the swing factor,” he explained. Central banks have started cutting interest rates, but those moves only provide what he calls “marginal liquidity support.” The true market direction, he believes, comes from balance sheet expansion and how the dollar index behaves.
Earlier this year, the DXY saw one of its steepest declines in decades, which was actually one reason Coutts turned bullish back in April. Now with the index stabilizing around 98-99, he thinks the next move will be crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin. Whether it retests 101 or breaks down below current levels could determine the market’s direction.
Portfolio strategy and altcoin outlook
Coutts maintains Bitcoin as his portfolio anchor, which makes sense given its position in the market. But since March, he’s been steadily allocating into smart contract platforms. His focus has been on networks showing strong growth in settlement volumes and fees – specifically mentioning Solana, Sui, Hyperliquid, and Tron.
Tron does come with some reputational concerns tied to Justin Sun, but Coutts points to its consistent on-chain growth and token buybacks as positive drivers. Hyperliquid, being an emerging platform, also has a place in his allocation strategy.
As the business cycle expands, he expects capital to shift from Bitcoin into altcoins, potentially accelerating altcoin outperformance through late Q4 and into 2026. That transition from Bitcoin dominance to altcoin strength has happened in previous cycles, though timing is always tricky to predict.
Why July wasn’t the cycle top
This part is particularly interesting. Coutts argues that Bitcoin’s July peak around $125,000 didn’t show the usual signs of a major top according to the Bitcoin Cycle Risk Score. Past cycle peaks were marked by extreme euphoria, surging funding rates, and heavy selling by long-term holders – none of which really appeared this time around.
Technical charts do show some bearish divergences that might suggest a top, but the lack of a parabolic move and relatively quiet derivatives activity point to something different. It seems we might be looking at a slower cycle with more room to run.
Global liquidity trends and central bank easing support the view that the true peak might come closer to mid-2026 rather than now. That’s quite a departure from some of the more immediate bearish predictions we’ve been hearing.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between support and resistance without a clear breakout. A move above $115,940 would strengthen the bullish case with higher targets in play, while dropping below $112,820 could signal more downside pressure.
It’s worth noting that while analysts track these levels, market movements often surprise everyone. The relationship between technical indicators, fundamental factors like dollar strength, and market psychology creates a complex picture that’s never straightforward to interpret.
